What will 2024 bring for you and your business? IMD faculty and other experts offer their predictions for the year ahead.
In 2024, it will be four years since the pandemic sparked the biggest workplace disruption in generations. From the rise of remote work to technological transformation and a growing emphasis on employee well-being, the past few years have upended traditional notions around the role and purpose of the workplace. So, what will next year have in store? Here are five trends that I predict will keep CHROs occupied over the next 12 months.
The COVID-19 pandemic shuttered many workplaces overnight, unleashing the great global work-from-home experiment. In the intervening years, as companies tried to lure staff back to the office, there has been endless debate about which hybrid strategy works best. With little data to go on, many firms took their cues from others, settling on a 3-2 (three days in the office and two days at home) or 2-3 strategy.
A few broke ranks. Spotify was an early mover when it introduced its ‘work from anywhere’ policy in 2021, while Telecom operator 3 Sweden called people back to the office in February 2022, arguing that creativity and strategy suffered when people weren’t able to meet physically.
Over the course of 2023, we saw more firms taking a stronger stance. J.P. Morgan notably asked its employees to return to the office five days a week. This trend is set to continue in 2024 with 64% of CEOs predicting a full return to the office by 2026 according to a KPMG 2023 CEO Outlook. The challenge will be how to do so without irking employees, many of whom now rank flexibility above salary when it comes to job searches.
One way for firms to win over staff will be by drawing on data to define flexible work strategies rather than just catering to the whims of top management. Various CHROs are running surveys among their employees about the pros and cons of remote work, as well as consulting with others in their industry to inform strategies and their Employee Value Propositions.
As my colleague Alyson Meister noted, sometimes staff don’t always know what is good for them. She calls this the “broccoli-chocolate” trade-off. Just as our children would prefer to eat chocolate for every meal, we know that feeding them broccoli will be better for their long-term health. The same is true of in-person office work. While people might prefer to work from home full-time, studies show that spending time in the office can strengthen social connections and promote a better work-life balance. Indeed, four out of five people surveyed under the age of 35 said they thought long-term work from home would increase feelings of loneliness and cause them to drift away from their workmates.
“Just as our children would prefer to eat chocolate for every meal, we know that feeding them broccoli will be better for their long-term health. The same is true of in-person office work.”
In my previous role as CHRO at an industrial company, many employees preferred to work at the same machine each day, partly because they felt comfortable doing that task, but also because they had built up camaraderie with the colleagues who worked next to them. However, we know from research that repetitive work is more likely to lead to physical illness. We therefore argued for greater flexibility in terms of manual labor so as not to wear out our employees, while at the same time broadening their competence and skills. This is an example of how data can help companies explain and justify their decisions. Whichever way firms decide to go on the remote work spectrum, I expect them to increasingly use research as well as benchmark data in 2024 to back up their positions.
2024 will see the emergence of new environmental, social, and governance reporting legislation that will force firms of all sizes to measure and publish statistics on a range of information from employee stress levels to safety. In addition, the EU has passed stricter regulationsrequiring listed companies to carry out checks on suppliers and take mitigating action when abuses are uncovered, or face sanctions.
While there has long been a trend to outsource workers for greater flexibility, the growing reporting requirements might conversely lead companies to bring more staff back in-house. The reason is that you can have far more control over how workers are treated if they are on your payroll and if their managers are accountable to your organization.
I remember working for a company where we had to compile safety statistics for our staff. The results were good, but when I asked for data on those who weren’t employed by us but still worked with us, it was a black box. This will no longer cut it in the new compliance-driven era. If companies are going to successfully manage their sustainability transition, finding ways to collect data on worker well-being both internally and with external partners will rise significantly up the priority list in 2024.
Over the past year, generative AI has increasingly infiltrated the workplace, with workers using it to produce short text, images, and even presentation slides, while firms have started automating routine tasks. In HR, I have the feeling that many professionals have preferred to watch from the sidelines. This is set to change in 2024, as firms start to go after the low-hanging fruit. This could include using AI to increase employee engagement and simplify some basic processes. For example, AI is a perfect tool to handle the annual employee engagement survey. What was once a large and unwieldy task can be done much faster and more frequently by deploying AI.
Other tasks where people value human interaction may take longer to be impacted by AI. In the recruiting process, for example, it’s long been possible to use AI to screen CVs, yet people now joke about how they were rejected by the algorithm. These kinds of interactions put employers at risk, as it might make them think less positively about the company. In areas like recruiting and onboarding, it will continue to be important for firms to strike a balance between using AI to increase efficiency without dehumanizing the company.
In many ways, it’s a lot like having a young and rebellious intern working for you. On the one hand, you love their skillset, but you wouldn’t want to let them loose without close supervision. In 2024, I expect AI to play the assistant role in HR with a gradual delegation only happening in 2025.
Lastly, a growing preoccupation for employers is how to create passion and energy around an organization’s purpose and culture, particularly if staff aren’t present physically. Many leaders have struggled to build bonds with their staff online. Yet this will have to change if firms are to increase employee engagement and reduce frustration and turnover rates.
According to a recent survey of over 40 leading Swedish companies, how to foster stronger, clearer, and more engaged leadership was among the top priorities. The new workplace requires a leadership model that privileges trust over control. Managers must move away from checking up on staff and instead lead with purpose and intent, starting with co-creating priorities and goals, and provide opportunities to regularly communicate with staff via online meetings as well as F2F, such as regular town halls and team meetings. Finding ways to replicate the spontaneous water cooler chat through digital channels will grow ever more important to build loyalty and a sense of belonging.
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