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Daniel Ziblatt: Democracy is dying in “baby steps” – here’s how leaders can push back
Business leaders today should identify their points of leverage – be it public influence, economic power, or industry collaboration – to quietly but effectively push back against policies that undermine democracy, said...
Business leaders today should identify their points of leverage – be it public influence, economic power, or industry collaboration – to quietly but effectively push back against policies that undermine democracy, said Daniel Ziblatt, author of the best-selling book How Democracies Die.
In recent years, the United States has experienced significant democratic backsliding – a trend that has accelerated in the past six months. Alarming developments such as attacks on the free press and civil society, defiance of court rulings, and the arrest of opposition lawmakers now signal a deeper erosion of democratic norms.
Daniel Ziblatt, Director of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies and Eaton Professor of the Science of Government at Harvard University, explored the roots and implications of this decline, and, crucially, what business and community leaders can do about it, on the final day of IMD’s Orchestrating Winning Performance (OWP) program.
Widely regarded as one of the foremost experts on the fragility of democracy, Ziblatt is the co-author of the 2018 New York Times bestseller How Democracies Die, written with Steven Levitsky. The book outlines how elected leaders can systematically weaken democratic institutions to entrench their own power.
Today, most democracies die at the hands of elected leaders, presidents and prime ministers. We use the very institutions of democracy to subvert.
“Democracies used to die – during the Cold War, in particular – at the hands of men with guns,” Ziblatt said. “Today, most democracies die at the hands of elected leaders, presidents and prime ministers. We use the very institutions of democracy to subvert.”
The trend is global. Ziblatt points to leaders like Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Narendra Modi in India. These leaders follow a troubling pattern. Ziblatt uses a soccer metaphor to explain it: First, they “capture the referees” – institutions that regulate political competition, such as the judiciary, electoral bodies, and tax authorities. Second, they “sideline the opposition players,” targeting civil society, the media, universities, and business leaders. Finally, they “tilt the playing field” by rewriting the rules of the game in their favor.
What makes this erosion so dangerous, Ziblatt warns, is that it happens gradually, in “baby steps”, making it difficult to detect in real time. Often, these anti-democratic moves are cloaked in a “veneer of legitimacy,” making them seem routine or even legal.
According to Freedom House, a global watchdog that scores countries on democratic health, the US scored 94 out of 100 just a decade ago, on par with countries like Germany and Canada. Today, that number has dropped to 83, tying the US with Romania and falling below Argentina. Ziblatt expects that trend to worsen: early signs in 2025 point to rising political detentions, defiance of court rulings, and the arrest of opposition lawmakers, which are all hallmarks of a weakening democracy.
What makes this decline especially alarming is that it wasn’t supposed to happen, said Ziblatt. Statistically, wealthy and old democracies like the US are considered highly resilient. Political scientist Daniel Treisman once estimated the probability of democratic breakdown in the U.S. at just 0.0008. So how did we get to this point?
Ziblatt points to two key factors.
The abdication of mainstream political leaders
“Democracy often dies not at the hands of its obvious enemies, but through the decisions of mainstream political leaders,” he said. These leaders, often acting within the bounds of democratic institutions, miscalculate by believing they can manage the rise of populist or authoritarian figures. Rather than confront these forces, they enable them. By contrast, Ziblatt notes that in Germany, political leaders have worked to exclude far-right parties like Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), thereby limiting their influence. In the US, however, too many leaders have failed to clearly distance themselves from anti-democratic behavior.
Structural vulnerabilities in the US Constitution
The American political system, Ziblatt argues, unintentionally empowers political minorities in ways that undermine democratic legitimacy. For example, the Electoral College allows presidents to be elected without winning the popular vote, a recurring and consequential flaw. Finally, Ziblatt highlights the absence of a strong civic memory in the US Unlike countries that have lived through dictatorship, such as Germany or many in South America, the US lacks a shared cultural understanding of authoritarianism’s dangers. Civic education, he argues, must fill that gap. “It would be terrible to say that you have to fall into the abyss before understanding what you’ve lost,” Ziblatt said. “Because I think you can learn from history.”Why democracy is worth fighting for
According to Ziblatt, we lose the fight for democracy when we lose the argument for why it matters. At its core, democracy is not about harmony but “a system of competition.” Competing parties, ideas, and leaders test one another in the public arena. When that competition is fair and open, something remarkable happens: power is not eliminated, but it is constrained. “The strength of democracy,” Ziblatt explains, “is not that it always produces the best leaders, but that it allows for failure, and then replacement. It builds self-correction into the system.”
This ability to self-correct is what makes democracy resilient. Regular elections act like circuit breakers, preventing power from becoming permanent, he said. Economically, democratic nations tend to outperform autocracies over time. While countries like China and Singapore are often cited as exceptions, Ziblatt points out, “For every Singapore and China, there are numerous chaotic, authoritarian regimes where the economy is struggling.” Democracies also tend to avoid catastrophic blunders, peacefully remove failed leaders, and uphold essential freedoms of speech, of religion, and the rule of law.
“History shows that when democratic forces form broad coalitions and exclude authoritarian actors, they can effectively safeguard democratic institutions.”
How to defend democracy
Defending democracy requires collective courage and strategic coordination across society’s most influential sectors. History shows that when democratic forces form broad coalitions and exclude authoritarian actors, they can effectively safeguard democratic institutions.
In today’s context, that means mobilizing civil society – business leaders, university presidents, civic organizations – to affirm shared democratic values and make clear where the red lines are.
While a few institutions in the US have begun to respond, Ziblatt warns that the pushback has been scattered, often led by individuals rather than through organized leadership. It’s a textbook collective action problem: when organizations fear government retaliation, self-preservation kicks in, leading many to stay silent—or worse, cooperate. But these individual acts of caution come at a high collective cost.
The antidote is leadership. When powerful institutions like Harvard University take a stand, they not only uphold democratic norms but also provide cover for others to follow. In moments of democratic crisis, it is these coordinated, principled actions that can shift the balance.
“The future of democracy is in the hands of people like you, people in positions of leadership in society, to draw the red line, to remind fellow citizens of this and to stand up for democracy.”
Act on principle, not convenience. Do the right thing, even when it’s difficult. The integrity of democratic institutions depends on those willing to draw red lines and defend them.
What can business leaders do about it?
Fewer CEOs are speaking out against the Trump administration today than during his first term. So how should today’s leaders respond in a moment of democratic strain? According to Ziblatt, the answer begins with strategic and moral clarity and a sense of responsibility.
Be strategic.
Speaking out isn’t about sounding off; it’s about timing and impact. As Ziblatt put it, “Being strategic is fine. It’s not just about saying whatever comes to your mind to make yourself feel better. Think about what actions and words you can use and what effect it will have.” Leaders should focus not just on expression, but influence.
Know your leverage.
Every leader has points of leverage: unique assets, relationships, or decisions that carry weight. Ziblatt cited Microsoft’s decision to stop working with a law firm that had accommodated the Trump administration. That move sent a clear message by imposing a cost for compromising democratic norms. Business leaders, too, can find such levers of influence in their ecosystems.
Collaborate with peers.
No leader needs to go it alone. Ziblatt emphasized the value of working across companies, industries, and institutions to brainstorm ideas, align strategies, and amplify impact. Coordinated, collective leadership can often be more powerful than individual action.
Act with moral clarity.
In moments of democratic crisis, waiting too long often means missing the moment altogether. Ziblatt’s advice is to act on principle, not convenience. Do the right thing, even when it’s difficult. The integrity of democratic institutions depends on those willing to draw red lines and defend them.
As our conversation concluded, I asked Ziblatt whether his next book would be titled “How Democracy Died” or “How Democracy Survived.” True to typical academic form, he sidestepped the binary. “I don’t think democracies ultimately die,” he said. “They can fall into a deep slumber, but they can always be recovered.”
This article is inspired by a keynote session at IMD’s signature Orchestrating Winning Performance program, which brings together executives from diverse sectors and geographies for a week of intense learning and sharing with IMD faculty and business experts.
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